On Feb. 22, BMO reported that precious metals such as palladium and gold will benefit from the escalating situation in Ukraine and increasing sanctions against Russia, while commodities such as aluminum and nickel are also worth watching. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said tensions escalated in the West in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that he recognized two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine and ordered troops to be sent there as "peacekeepers."
In response, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would release the first sanctions against Russia, targeting two Russian banks and sovereign debt. Biden also called Russia's actions "the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine." Earlier in the day, Germany announced it was halting the certification process for nord Stream 2 gas pipeline imports from Russia. In addition, the EU imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian Duma and banned purchases of Russian government bonds.
Ово би могао да буде само почетак санкција Русији, због чега је извештај БМО одлучио да се сагледа потенцијални утицај на трговинске токове роба.
"Ultimately, we expect Russian commodity exports to shift from Europe and North America to Asia," bMO commodities analyst Colin Hamilton said. A change in existing trade routes would lead to temporary disruption of market fundamentals, with precious metals being the commodities most affected by the shortage."
Palladium is the best performer of all precious metals, with Russia accounting for 39 per cent of the world's refined metal supply. Palladium prices have surged 24 per cent so far this year. Hamilton warned that further supply disruptions from Russia could lead to a sharp rise in palladium prices.
"Supply uncertainty, combined with the resumption of auto production, led to higher palladium prices... Russia is expected to account for 9 per cent of gold, 6 per cent of silver, 11 per cent of platinum and 8 per cent of rhodium supply respectively."
Поред забринутости за снабдевање, привлачност безбедног{0}}уточишта племенитих метала привлачи све више инвеститора који траже сигурност од пропасти глобалног тржишта акција.
Hamilton added: "Safe-haven investment demand in the market is also stimulating gold prices, which have recovered to around 1,900 an ounce."
Русија је главни добављач не само нафте, већ и неколико стратешких роба које би требало да имају користи од појачаних геополитичких тензија у источној Европи, рекао је Фил Стрејбл, главни тржишни стратег компаније Блуе Лине Футурес. Уз ограничене залихе нафте и гаса, цене сирове нафте могле би да порасту изнад 100 или чак 120 за барел, рекао је Стреибле.
Other strategic metals such as palladium, copper and cobalt will also benefit further, he said. "Russia is the second largest platinum producer in the world, the first palladium producer, the third largest wheat producer," he said. Wheat prices have begun to rise, up 4.85 percent so far this year. Russia produces 3.5 percent of the world's copper. As demand for electric cars increases, copper is one of the main ingredients... Russia produces 4 percent of the world's cobalt, which is used in batteries for electric cars. So Russia is a very strategic country in terms of commodity production, commodity exports and the direction of the global economy."
Колин Хамилтон, аналитичар Бмо производа, додао је да су робе попут алуминијума и никла такође вредне пажње, посебно у Европи и Северној Америци. На глобалном нивоу, руске испоруке нису нужно толико важне, али су добро успостављене на развијеним тржиштима. Можда је још важније да су залихе ове робе већ ниске. Поред тога, он очекује да ће ЛМЕ премије алуминијума у Европи и Северној Америци порасти у блиској будућности.
